Two leading sports data companies say the United States have the best chance of winning the FIFA Women’s World Cup, and both tip New Zealand as a chance to finish in the top 16.
Global sports data company Gracenote, based in California, have run about a million simulations of the tournament outcomes using historical data to rank the 32 participating teams.
“Our simulations confirm that World Cup 2023 is likely to be a very open and competitive tournament,” Gracenote’s head of analysis Simon Gleave says.
“There is a strong challenge to champions and favourites USA from Europe and Australia’s home advantage has boosted them to the seventh most likely team to win the competition.”
Meanwhile, London-based Opta Sports have also processed available data on the players and teams at the tournament, and have forecast a United States win, with challenges most likely to come from England, Spain, Germany, France and Australia.
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Gracenote’s forecasts
- The United States are rated an 18% chance of taking the title.
- There’s a 58% chance the winner will come from the five tournament favourites who are the United States, Sweden, Germany, France and England.
- The eight most likely quarter-finalists are Spain, the United States, France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia, in that order, while the most likely semi-finalists are the United States, Sweden, Germany and France.
- New Zealand are rated 15th of the 32 teams, with a chance of going into the Round of 16 for the first time.
Opta Sports’ forecasts
- The United States are given a 21.6% chance of retaining their World Cup crown.
- England’s Lionesses have the second best chance of winning, with a 16.9% possibility of success.
- Spain have an 11.3% chance of taking the title but have a 21.9% shot at reaching the final in Sydney.
- Germany (4th), France (5th) and Australia (6th) are the next most likely winners, with the Matildas rated a 5.9% chance.
- New Zealand are rated the 17th-best chance from the 32 participating nations.
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