Sports data analysts forecast a top 16 finish for Ferns at FIFA Women’s World Cup

Two leading sports data companies say the United States have the best chance of winning the FIFA Women’s World Cup, and both tip New Zealand as a chance to finish in the top 16.

Global sports data company Gracenote, based in California, have run about a million simulations of the tournament outcomes using historical data to rank the 32 participating teams.

“Our simulations confirm that World Cup 2023 is likely to be a very open and competitive tournament,” Gracenote’s head of analysis Simon Gleave says.

“There is a strong challenge to champions and favourites USA from Europe and Australia’s home advantage has boosted them to the seventh most likely team to win the competition.”

Meanwhile, London-based Opta Sports have also processed available data on the players and teams at the tournament, and have forecast a United States win, with challenges most likely to come from England, Spain, Germany, France and Australia.

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Gracenote’s forecasts

  • The United States are rated an 18% chance of taking the title.
  • There’s a 58% chance the winner will come from the five tournament favourites who are the United States, Sweden, Germany, France and England.
  • The eight most likely quarter-finalists are Spain, the United States, France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan and Australia, in that order, while the most likely semi-finalists are the United States, Sweden, Germany and France.
  • New Zealand are rated 15th of the 32 teams, with a chance of going into the Round of 16 for the first time.

Opta Sports’ forecasts

  • The United States are given a 21.6% chance of retaining their World Cup crown.
  • England’s Lionesses have the second best chance of winning, with a 16.9% possibility of success.
  • Spain have an 11.3% chance of taking the title but have a 21.9% shot at reaching the final in Sydney.
  • Germany (4th), France (5th) and Australia (6th) are the next most likely winners, with the Matildas rated a 5.9% chance.
  • New Zealand are rated the 17th-best chance from the 32 participating nations.

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